Service Plays Tuesday 12/21/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL

Louisville vs. Southern Mississippi

The Cardinals look to take advantage of a Southern Mississippi team that is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog from 1 to 3 points. Louisville is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-3).

Game 207-208: Louisville vs. Southern Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 92.423; Southern Mississippi 87.227
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 5; 60
Vegas Line: Louisville by 3; 57
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-3); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday's best NCAAB bets

Southern California Trojans at No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers (-7, N/A)

All of a sudden the Tennessee Volunteers are in a freefall. After downing Big East powerhouses Pitt and Villanova earlier this season the Vols have dropped a pair of very winnable games and now have to square off against a Trojans team that just went shot-for-shot with Kansas over the weekend.

Tennessee dropped an 89-82 decision to Oakland as a 11.5-point favorite and put out a terrible effort in falling 49-48 to Charlotte as a 12.5-point favorite, leaving everybody wondering what’s going on with the club that had looked like a legit top-10 team a couple of weeks ago.

"I think we're a good team that had a bad week, but we've got to go prove that now," junior guard Scotty Hopson told reporters. "We had mental lapses, but I think we'll turn it back around next week. Everyone's got to understand what their role and their position on this basketball team is. Once we put that together, I think we'll be fine.”

That may not be the quick fix the Vols think it might be. They shot just 34.9 percent against Charlotte and went to the free-throw line only seven times.

Pick: USC

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels at Kansas State Wildcats (-4.5, 138)

When the Kansas State Wildcats really needed a few shots to go down, they couldn’t get them to go in a 57-44 loss to the Florida Gators.

The Wildcats shot only 27 percent on the night, but could have at least made it close down the stretch if they didn’t go through terrible droughts like the one that saw them miss 19 of 20 shots. Jacob Pullen scored 19 points though even he was only 6 of 17 from the floor.

"We did a lot of things to hurt ourselves," Pullen told reporters. "We missed a lot of easy shots. Defensively we were getting lost. We didn't stick to our game plan. Toward the end of the game we fell apart with it."

Meanwhile, UNLV snapped a two-game slide with a win over Southern Utah, but their slump at the pay window continues. The Rebels have dropped five straight against the number and K-State will show up at home to continue UNLV’s slump.

Pick: Kansas State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick 'n' roll: Tuesday's best NBA bets

Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings (N/A)

This matchup between California rivals is a toilet bowl game between two of the NBA’s worst teams. To fans, that means changing the channel. To bettors, though, basement battles mean value.

The Kings have just five wins on the year and have dropped five straight games heading into Tuesday. Sacramento is scoring under 92 points an outing and is just 1-4 ATS during this skid. Its most recent loss was a 102-93 defeat to the Houston Rockets – a game the Kings led, 81-79, going into the fourth quarter.

"The idea is to get wins, and we do not have whatever it takes to do that," head coach Paul Westphal told the Sacramento Bee. "We are not exhibiting whatever it takes to do that in the fourth quarters right now. It's discouraging for the fans and it's discouraging for the players."

The fingers are pointing at star point guard Tyreke Evans, who has run out of gas late in games this season. Evans, who won Rookie of the Year in 2009-10, is averaging under 16 points per game this month and has been slowed by a foot injury.

"Certainly there's concern," Westphal told reporters of Evans’ play. "Whether it's fatigue or soreness, whatever it is, we need to get our best players leading us in the fourth quarter."

Evans will have the daunting task of not only carrying his team offensively Tuesday, but also guarding Golden State sparkplug, Monta Ellis. Ellis is scoring 24.5 points per game this year and torched Sacramento for 39 points in his last game against the Kings on January 8, 2010.

Pick: Golden State

New Jersey Nets at Memphis Grizzlies (-8, 188.5)

Things are starting to look up in the Garden State, with the Nets winning two of their last three games heading into Tuesday’s date with the Memphis Grizzlies.

New Jersey picked up an 89-82 win over the Atlanta Hawks, covering as a 3.5-point home underdog Sunday. The Nets outscored the Hawks 27-20 in the final quarter and got a huge boost from their reserves, who combined to score 30 points in the win.

"Our bench, really, all the guys coming off the bench," guard Devin Harris told the New York Post when asked what made the difference against Atlanta.

Recently acquired guard Sasha Vujacic led the charge off the bench with 10 points, while forward Troy Murphy added eight points and five rebounds off the pine.

"They had to put their starters back in against our second unit. That was the kind of energy, the kind of game they brought," said starting center Brook Lopez.

New Jersey and Memphis are 2-2 in their last four head-to-head meetings, however, the Nets have managed to cover in the three of those games.

Pick: New Jersey

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ice picks: Tuesday's best NHL bets

Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks (-240, 5.5)

The Edmonton Oilers have just finished a grueling part of their schedule and just finished their longest stretch of time off all season. They haven’t played since downing Columbus 6-3 last Thursday.

That layoff, combined with the upcoming holiday break, has Oilers coach Tom Renney concerned about his team’s focus heading into this game and rightfully so – the young team has suffered through a lot of lapses early in the year.

“It’s going to be a tough one to bounce back from, especially with Christmas looming after the trip,” Renney told reporters. “It’ll be a psychological test for us as a group, how much we can focus on a small picture, how much we can focus on the challenge at hand.”

Edmonton looked dangerous in last week’s win over Columbus, with Linus Omark scoring his first NHL goal, Jordan Eberle netting a pair, and Taylor Hall chipping in three assists. However, they also needed 40 saves from Nikolai Khabibulin in that one.

There’s just no way of knowing how Edmonton will come out here in this spot but it looks like the offense is on track anyway.

Pick: Over

Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars (-135, 5.5)

After many expected the Dallas Stars to miss the playoffs while they focused on the future this year, the club will head into the Christmas break near the top of the Western Conference standings.

Dallas completed an impressive two-game road trip with wins over Columbus and Detroit over the weekend and now heads home for the next three games to carry them through Christmas. It hasn’t been easy for the Stars though.

Dallas leads the league with 14 one-goal wins and was forced to battle back from a 2-0 first period deficit against the Red Wings on Sunday.

"It's such a hard league to come back in, and you have to give our guys a tremendous amount of credit for staying with it," coach Marc Crawford told reporters. "It really was a game in which we had a lot of excuses to pack it in, but our guys hung tough and found a way."

This is a tough team that doesn’t back down and is starting to get some offensive support for Brad Richards’ line too. Dallas has been fantastic at home all season and should get it done against a slumping Canadiens club.

Pick: Dallas

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors' best friend (BBF): Tuesday's wagering tips

Who’s hot

NBA: Philadelphia 76ers have covered in 11 of their last 12 games.

NBA: Memphis Grizzlies are riding a 7-1 ATS run.

NBA: Los Angeles Lakers have covered in four straight.

NHL: Atlanta Thrashers have won 11 of their last 15.

NHL: Dallas Stars have won nine of their last 11 home games.

Who’s not

NBA: Sacramento Kings have covered in nine of their last 33 games.

NHL: Calgary Flames have won two of their last 11 road games.

NHL: St. Louis Blues have won two of their last 10 road games.

NHL: Washington Capitals have won one of their last nine overall.

NCAAB: UNLV has dropped five straight against the number.

Key stat

Six – number of seasons under Bruce Pearl that Tennessee went without losing back-to-backs to teams from mid-major conferences. That streak ended last week when the Vols lost 49-48 at Charlotte as 12.5-point favorites.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Andrew Bynum (knee), Los Angeles Lakers – Bynum expects to play Tuesday despite feeling some “twinges” in his surgically-repaired knee on Sunday. Bynum scored 16 points and chipped in seven rebounds in his return to the lineup even though he felt “glued to the floor.” It’s going to take a while for the young center to get back to 100 percent.

Game of the day

Louisville at Southern Mississippi (2.5, 57)

Notable quotable

"I'm not as worried about the offense, though I'm sure we'll have some rough moments here in the next few weeks. But we can just be real, real simple early on. As it has been with the guys we've had, my concern's with the defense. It takes a lot more time.” – Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy about working his new players into the team’s scheme following last weekend’s trades that brought Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu, Earl Thomas, and Jason Richardson to the Magic.
Notes and tips

Taj Gibson suffered a concussion Saturday night in a loss to the Los Angeles Clippers and his status is up in the air for Tuesday’s home game against the Philadelphia 76ers. Gibson said he felt fine following Saturday’s contest, but couldn’t remember much of what happened after he collided with DeAndre Jordan.

Alexander Semin is questionable for the Washington Capitals’ game on Tuesday against the New Jersey Devils. Semin was able to practice Monday, but still doesn’t look quite right and the team wants to make sure he’s 100 percent before coming back. The Russian winger has missed three straight games.

The University of Louisville will battle Southern Mississippi’s big time offense with both of its quarterbacks on Tuesday. Justin Burke will make his fifth consecutive start for the Cardinals, but Adam Froman will also be worked into the mix as well. Froman started the first eight games of the year before suffering a thigh injury.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl: What bettors need to know


Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl: Louisville Cardinals vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (+2.5, 57)

The Skinny: Southern Miss (8-4, 6-6 ATS) doesn’t always make its way into the national spotlight, but it certainly knows how to win. The 2010 campaign marked the 17th straight winning season for the Golden Eagles. They will be familiar with their opponent in the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, with Louisville (6-6, 6-6 ATS) and Southern Miss splitting seven C-USA titles between 1996-2004 before the Cardinals left for the Big East.

Louisville has been in a free fall basically since Bobby Petrino did his dance with the NFL and left the program. Enter Charlie Strong this season and some low expectations. But Strong has proven to be the right man to resurrect the program, leading the Cardinals back to a .500 record that includes a 26-0 victory over BCS-bound Connecticut and a 40-13 pasting of Rutgers in the regular season finale that made them bowl eligible.

Strong, who was named co-Coach of the Year in the Big East, decided to lean on an under-appreciated group of seniors instead of starting a complete rebuild and was rewarded with a defense that played hard and kept the team in games and an experienced offense that pounds the ball behind the best offensive line in the Big East.

Point Spread: Southern Miss +2.5. Over/Under 57. The spread opened at 3.5 in favor of Louisville but has since moved before the key number of 3 to 2.5 as of Monday afternoon. The total has dropped half a point from its opening of 57.5.

Southern Miss’ Edge: A defense that carried the team early in the season slacked off over the back half, putting more pressure on the offense. Thankfully, quarterback Austin Davis was up to the task, thanks in part to a strong rushing attack that ranked 21st in the country while averaging 203.4 yards per game.

Southern Miss also ranked in the Top-20 nationally in turnover margin and rushing defense, which should make for a nice matchup with the Cardinals’ strength.

Louisville’s Edge: Bilal Powell. A first-team all-Big East performer this season, Powell used his blend of size and speed to rush for 1,330 yards and 10 touchdowns. The offensive line certainly works to his advantage, with Powell possessing the speed and vision to hit the holes his line opens and the patience to wait for those holes to develop.

The Quarterbacks: Southern Miss relies heavily on Austin Davis both in the passing game and on the ground. Davis finished the season strong, passing for eight scores and rushing for four more while throwing only one interception over the last four games. On the season, the junior passed for 2,898 yards and 18 scores while chipping in 10 rushing touchdowns.

Louisville has some questions going into the bowl at the most important position, as senior Adam Froman is getting over a thigh bruise and his backup, senior Justin Burke dealing with back spasms. No matter who starts, the goal is to get the ball to Powell or tight end Cameron Graham. Froman took the bulk of the snaps and averaged 204 yards per game through eight games while throwing 11 touchdowns.

NFL Prospects: Southern Miss - DT Anthony Gray, DT John Henderson, S Justin Wilson. Louisville - TE Cameron Graham, RB Bilal Powell, CB Johnny Patrick

Bowl History: Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are 9-11 all-time in bowl games and will be making their ninth straight bowl appearance. They most recently lost the 2009 New Orleans Bowl, 42-32, to Middle Tennessee. Louisville - The Cardinals are 6-7-1 all-time in bowl games but have not been invited to one since beating Wake Forest, 24-13, in the 2006 Orange Bowl - the school’s only trip to a BCS Bowl.

Etc.: Louisville cornerback Darius Ashley was arrested and charged with DUI on December 2 and his status for the bowl game has yet to be determined.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI

Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Beef O'Brady's Bowl
at St. Petersburg, FL
Southern Miss 34, Louisville 33

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POWERSWEEP

FORECAST: OVER 57 L’ville/SM
RATING: 2★ OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

*Southern Miss 33 - Louisville 29

—In his recent end-of-regular-season “Report Cards” feature, TGS EXTRA!!! editor Bruce Marshall gave surprising Louisville a mark of B+. We concur, and might even bump that up to an A- considering the shaky state of the Cardinal squad that rookie head coach Charlie Strong inherited from predecessor Steve Kragthorpe. Strong, a highly- respected defensive coordinator most recently at Florida, has quickly revitalized the sagging Louisville program, earning the school’s first bowl bid since Bobby Petrino bolted following a 12-1 campaign in 2006. Sure, it wasn’t easy, the Cardinals needing a road win at Rutgers in the regular-season finale to get to 6-6. But Strong’s mix of conservative run-oriented offense and risk-taking defense has frequently proven a winning formula...given the right matchup.

And there’s the rub. This doesn’t appear to be a matchup that favors Louisville’s strengths. While the Cardinals boast one of the nation’s most productive RBs in late-blooming sr. Bilal Powell (121 ypg rushing on 6.3 ypc), Southern Miss counters with a somewhat underrated defense that, despite permitting 40 ppg over the last 5, has begrudged foes a mere 113 ypg on the ground (No. 13 in the country). And Louisville’s own stop unit seems ill- equipped to deal with the well-balanced Golden Eagle attack (255 ypg passing, 203 ypg rushing, 38 ppg).

To compensate for a lack of overall depth on defense, Strong & coordinator Vance Bedford (also from Urban Meyer’s Gator staff) employ a myriad of almost constant blitzes that have produced a whopping 38 sacks. But that strategy figures to backfire against USM, as quick-thinking jr. QB Austin Davis is not just an accurate passer (64% last 2 campaigns; 51 career TDP vs. only 16 ints.), but also very mobile (436 yards & 10 TDs rushing this season). Plus, Davis is well- protected (Eagle OL has allowed only 16 sacks TY) and gets good ground support from young RB duo of RS frosh Kendrick Hardy & soph Desmond Johnson (combined 1364 YR & 15 TDs). Add in jr. PK Danny Hrapmann, a Lou Groza Award finalist who’s nailed 26 of his 30 FG attempts, and we like Southern Miss’ chances to spring a small upset.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NELLY'S

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL @St. Petersburg, FL ESPN
Louisville (-3) Southern Mississippi (57) 7:00 PM

This match-up will be offense versus defense in a showdown between two former Conference USA rivals. Southern Miss averaged 458 yards per game while Louisville allowed just 305 yards per game. The health at QB for Louisville will be something to keep an eye on but Louisville’s turnaround season came mainly through an excellent running game and the solid defense. Southern Miss lost three times in conference play but all three misses were excruciatingly close games. The Golden Eagles scored nearly 38 points per game this season, more than Louisville scored in all but two games this season. Southern Miss had very average defensive numbers but they allowed just 3.6 yards per carry, much better than Louisville did despite the drastic differences in the overall defensive numbers. The great offense hurt the defensive figures for the Eagles with more opportunities to put up yards. Louisville also faces some distractions as Coach Strong was a serious candidate for some of the marquee openings.

SO MISS BY 7
RATING 2: SOUTHERN MISS (+3) over Louisville

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWRENCE' PLAYBOOK

Tuesday, December 21
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
Southern Miss over Louisville by 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS REPORTER

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 21
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, FL

SOUTHERN MISS over LOUISVILLE by 1

SOUTHERN MISS, 30-29.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WINNING POINTS

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL (St. Petersburg, FL)
LOUISVILLE over SOUTHERN MISS by 5

LOUISVILLE 31-26.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WINNING POINTS NBA

*Orlando over Dallas by 2
Utah proved you could win against Miami and Orlando on the road in back-to-back nights. No team has been playing better than the Mavericks who were riding a 12- game winning streak through the second weekend of this month. ORLANDO 94-92.

**PREFERRED
Oklahoma City over *Charlotte by 10
The Thunder plays with tenacity and hit the boards hard making them a tough road team. Already they own road victories against Boston, Utah, Indiana and New Orleans. The Thunder also have great finishers in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Bobcats can’t match that scoring load. OKLAHOMA CITY 100-90.

*Memphis over New Jersey by 6
The Nets are playing for the fourth time in six days, but were 12-4 ATS versus Western Conference clubs through Dec. 11. MEMPHIS 103-97.

**PREFERRED
*Chicago over Philadelphia by 16
This is the second of a massive eight-game road trip for the 76ers. Philly might get caught peaking ahead to Wednesday’s revenge matchup against Boston. The Celtics nipped the 76ers by one point 12 days ago. The Bulls came out of the second week- end of this month playing their best ball. CHICAGO 112-96.

*Sacramento over Golden State by 4
The Warriors were 1-3 SU and ATS in the second of consecutive games through Dec. 13. SACRAMENTO 103-99.

*Los Angeles Lakers over Milwaukee by 8 It might take the Lakers a while to get back in gear as this is their first game back from a seven-game road swing. The Bucks made the mistake of running with the Lakers in their first meeting and paid the price in a 118-107 home loss. Don’t expect Scott Skiles to make the same mistake. Look for a slower tempo. LA LAKERS 102-94.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WINNING POINTS NCAAB

Tuesday, December 21

Tennessee* over USC by 16
With their lack of depth, true road games against NCAA Tournament-caliber foes fig- ure to stretch the Trojans farther than they can afford to be stretched over the course of 40 minutes. TENNESSEE, 80-64.
Kent State* over Youngstown State by 18
Cincinnati over Miami-OH* by 10
North Carolina* over William & Mary by 20
VCU over UAB* by 1 Strange sight: UAB near the bottom of the nation in steals per game. VCU point guard Joey Rodriguez was already a sure-handed fellow to begin with. VCU, 70-69.
Drake* over Dartmouth by 16 Some lopsided early losses probably helps to create some pro-Drake value now when they move down in class. DRAKE, 76-59.
Iowa* over Louisiana Tech by 3 As mentioned last week in the **PREFERRED winner on Iowa State over Iowa, the Hawkeyes, are collapsing in the second half. IOWA, 73-71.
Wichita State* over Tulsa by 11
Kansas State over UNLV by 8 (Kansas City, MO)
New Mexico State* over UL-Lafayette by 11
Vanderbilt over Middle Tennessee* by 10
Oklahoma State* over Stanford by 10
Oregon* over Idaho by 8

**PREFERRED
Pacific over Fresno State* by 9
The visitors have played plenty of road ball in tougher houses than this. Their good interior defense is a bad match-up for the Fresno State center Smith that coach Cleveland is trying to get untracked. PACIFIC, 71-62.

Pepperdine* over Cal Poly-SLO Rice* over Stetson by 6 (Las Vegas)
Miami-FL* over Oral Roberts by 7 (Las Vegas)
Akron over Arkansas-LR by 9 (Las Vegas)
San Diego State over San Francisco by 18 (Las Vegas)
Western Michigan over Troy by 5 (Logan, UT)
Utah State* over Idaho State by 22

 

[heleanth]

POWERSWEEP

FORECAST: OVER 57 L’ville/SM
RATING: 2★ OVER

Powersweep has had all three bowls wrong so far. They are a 50\50 proposition at best.

 

[LittleChicago]

Powersweep has had all three bowls wrong so far. They are a 50\50 proposition at best.

I dont put any faith in any of those except Marc. He was 22-9 last year in his bowl report, 10-3 on paid bowl selections. He has missed 2 & hit 1 so far, hit Troy

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Harrison

NCAA Football
4 UNIT* 12-21-10 - Louisville Cardinals -2.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NCAA CBB

Season
Straight Up: 1287-335 (.793)
ATS: 466-479 (.493)
ATS Vary Units: 1708-1703 (.501)
Over/Under: 433-464 (.483)
Over/Under Vary Units: 703-822 (.461)

Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic
at South Point Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Akron 73, Ualr 65
Miami (Fla.) 76, Oral Roberts 69
Rice 69, Stetson 63
San Diego State 79, San Francisco 55
Lou Henson Award Tournament
Championship
OAKLAND 85, Valparaiso 72
Madison Square Garden Holiday Festival
at New York, NY
Davidson 69, St. Francis (N.Y.) 60
Championship
Northwestern 69, ST. JOHN'S 68
World Vision Basketball Invitational
Round Robin at Logan, UT
UTAH STATE 81, Idaho State 52
Western Michigan 77, Troy 71
Ohio Valley Conference
AUSTIN PEAY 72, Morehead State 70
Eastern Illinois 63, JACKSONVILLE STATE 61
Murray State 78, TENNESSEE-MARTIN 61
TENNESSEE STATE 73, Eastern Kentucky 67
TENNESSEE TECH 81, Southeast Missouri State 69
Non-Conference
ALABAMA 78, Lipscomb 70
ARIZONA STATE 74, Long Beach State 64
AUBURN 70, USC Upstate 61
BOSTON U. 72, Saint Joseph's 69
BROWN 68, Army 63
Byu 86, WEBER STATE 73
Cincinnati 65, MIAMI (OHIO) 58
DENVER 61, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54
DRAKE 68, Dartmouth 51
FLORIDA GULF COAST 69, North Carolina Central 66
GEORGIA 82, High Point 63
IOWA 70, Louisiana Tech 60
IOWA STATE 90, Chicago State 57
Kansas State 71, Unlv 67
KENT STATE 75, Youngstown State 61
MARQUETTE 86, Mississippi Valley State 57
NEBRASKA 78, Grambling State 51
NEW HAMPSHIRE 80, Louisiana-Lafayette 64
NORTH CAROLINA 76, William & Mary 57
OHIO STATE 90, UNC Asheville 60
OKLAHOMA 78, Sacramento State 57
OREGON 75, Idaho 64
Pacific 63, FRESNO STATE 62
PENN STATE 69, Maine 55
PEPPERDINE 68, Cal Poly 65
PROVIDENCE 89, Sacred Heart 66
PURDUE 77, Ipfw 54
Saint Peter's 57, BINGHAMTON 54
Sam Houston State vs. HOUSTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
SOUTH ALABAMA 82, Alcorn State 61
TCU 86, Northwestern State 73
TENNESSEE 71, Usc 58
TEXAS A&M 77, Wagner 47
UAB 69, Vcu 64
UC DAVIS 73, Southern Utah 61
UCLA 79, Montana State 63
UMKC 81, Houston Baptist 72
Vanderbilt 82, MIDDLE TENNESSEE 69
WAKE FOREST 78, Presbyterian 65
WICHITA STATE 73, Tulsa 63
OKLAHOMA STATE 74, Stanford 60